Victory for the veteran nationalist’s Marching Towards Reform alliance with Iraq’s communists — pitched an anti-corruption outsider force — would be a slap in the face for Iraq’s widely reviled ruling establishment.
Sadr — who has ruled himself out of becoming prime minister — looks likely to be the key power-broker and has already mooted a technocrat government of some dozen parties that bridge sectarian divides.
But with his group set to be far from a majority in parliament, wrangling over any potential coalition should take months — and there remain major obstacles ahead that could thwart Sadr’s ambitions.
The elections on Saturday — hit by record abstentions — saw a clear rejection of the Iraqi elite that has run the country since the ouster of Saddam Hussein in 2003.
Tallies put the anti-establishment Conquest Alliance of former paramilitary fighters who helped battle IS in second, and incumbent Prime Minister Haider al Abadi’s bloc back in third.
Abadi — a consensus figure favoured by the US — had been seen as likely frontrunner after declaring victory over the militants five months ago.
Sadr rose to prominence in the wake of the US invasion, when his militia fighters fought a bloody insurgency against American troops.
After years on the sidelines, he has now reinvented himself as a crusading champion of the poor who has linked up with secularists to battle corruption.
Supporters in his Baghdad stronghold Sadr City were hopeful that victory could spell improvements.
“If we want to change things then the prime minister needs to come from Marching Towards Reform,” said Salah Jamal, 24.
“We have tried all the others,” Jamal insisted. “But we have had no results.”
The protracted horse-trading ahead comes as surging tensions between the US and Iran after Washington’s withdrawal from a landmark nuclear deal with Tehran have sparked fears of a tug-of-war over Iraq.
Sadr is one of the few Iraqi politicians who is opposed to both the presence of American troops in Iraq and the overbearing influence of neighbours over the country.
In a surprising pivot last year he visited Saudi Arabia.
Sadr is likely to face fierce opposition from established political forces, who may look to coalesce in a bid to stop him taking control.
One of the alliances being suggested would see Abadi
link up with the Conquest Alliance of former anti-IS commander Hadi al Ameri. — AFP
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