EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said last week that May’s new Brexit proposals contained constructive elements, though he added that many questions remain.
In Berlin on his first overseas trip as British foreign minister since replacing Boris Johnson, who resigned over May’s new proposals, Jeremy Hunt delivered a caution to the most powerful European Union power.
“When it comes to Brexit there is now a very real risk of a Brexit no-deal by accident,” he told a news conference alongside his German counterpart Heiko Maas. “I think that many people in the EU are thinking that they just have to wait long enough and Britain will blink. And that’s not going to happen,” Hunt said.
Under the current timetable, both London and Brussels hope to get a final Brexit deal in October to give enough time to ratify it by Brexit day next March, though few diplomats expect the deal to be struck until months later. About 52 per cent of Britain’s total $1.1 trillion trade in goods last year was with the EU and some investors have said such a chaotic scenario would seriously damage both the economies of Britain and the EU over the short-term.
Supporters of Brexit admit there may be some short-term pain for Britain’s $2.9 trillion economy, but that long-term it will prosper when cut free from the EU which they cast as a failing German-dominated experiment in European integration.
Hunt said Britain and Germany shared a commitment to a rules-based international order and that only Russian President Vladimir Putin would rejoice at the turmoil of a “no-deal” Brexit. He added that the lack of a deal, while damaging for Britain, would provoke a backlash among British voters. “Without a real change in approach from the EU negotiators we do now face a real risk of no deal by accident and that would be incredibly challenging economically,” Hunt said.
Maas said Germany did not want a disorderly Brexit. “We want an agreement. And we also know that for that we have to make steps toward each other,” he said, adding that the EU’s collective interests had to be defended.
Some international businesses have stepped up planning for a so-called “no deal” though they admit there is little clarity about what such a scenario would look like.
EU countries will suffer long-term damage equivalent to about 1.5 percent of annual output if Britain leaves the bloc without a free trade deal next year, the IMF said
last week. — Reuters
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