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This is based on the assumption that Lowassa has many supporters and his defection to Chadema means his followers from CCM would all vote him, thereby giving him chance to win the election.
Ukawa includes Chadema, Civic United Front (CUF), National League for Democracy (NLD) and National Convention for Construction and Reform (NCCR-Mageuzi).
They said since election is about numbers, Ukawa will benefit and that the challenge for Chadema is how to manage Lowassa followers because everyone comes in with their ideologies.
In the next election people will vote for ‘new CCM’ under Lowassa or vote for ‘old’ one whose candidate is John Pombe Magufuli.
There are fears that this may trigger crisis in Chadema politics if Lowassa does win the election. Chadema would risk its position as the strongest Opposition in the country.
University of Dar es Salaam (UDSM) political scientist Dr Benson Bana says Ukawa are not sure if Lowassa will be an asset or not, and this is a long term risk.
“In welcoming Lowassa, Ukawa gambled with someone who opposed them. For example, he had voted ‘yes’ to the new proposed constitution against which Ukawa stood firmly,” Dr Bana explained.
He said Ukawa should ask ‘why does Lowassa have so many followers while he is neither a prophet nor preacher…they should find out about that immediately. This could be a risk to Ukawa.
As for CCM, it too is facing a risk because Lowassa is a big asset and he is a popular figure.
“Currently there is tension in CCM as many Lowassa followers are expected to leave the party to join the Opposition. Since election is about numbers, CCM could lose a number of people to Ukawa,” Dr. Bana said.
Meanwhile, Dr Bana said expressed concern over how an individual became ‘bigger’ than an institution.
He says at present Lowassa is Ukawa and Ukawa is Lowassa, describing the scenario as unhealthy for the party.
Taking Lowassa as the presidential candidate shows weakness in the four parties, reflecting they failed to prepare a presidential candidate.
“This is a credit to CCM, even some opposition leaders agree that ‘good leaders’ will come from CCM, and not from the Opposition,” Dr Bana said. But he added that Lowassa is there merely physically but in reality he is still a CCM cadre.
Professor Kitila Mkumbo from the same institution says for a long time CCM has been associated with corruption, but ‘this new Ukawa chapter’ has changed history.
He adds that Ukawa has done well given that ‘numbers’ is the main factor that brings a leader to power.
The Tanzanian public knows Lowassa is corrupt because of Chadema, and not CCM. Therefore, they are the ones supposed to remove the corruption mentality. They have the challenge to explain he is not corrupt.
According to Prof Mkumbo, Chadema has become a ‘new CCM’, and they will have to follow the principles of the new CCM under Lowassa.
“The public have two options in the coming election: to vote for ‘new CCM’ or remain with the old CCM one,” he said.
Civil United Front (CUF) member Julius Mtatiro told The Guardian on Sunday that the benefits Chadema has is winning many members from CCM.
But the bigger challenge is to maintain and manage members, which may lead to conflicting views in the ‘new Chadema’ under Lowassa.
Lowassa has a big platform to continue with his political issues but this is also risk factor for him if he will not win the general election.
“Failure by Lowassa to win the election would affect Chadema because members could leave the party, and Chadema will lose its popularity,” Mtatiro explained.
If Lowassa loses it will be the beginning of crisis in Chadema and risks losing the status of being the strongest opposition party in country.
As for Professor Bashiru Ally, from the same university, the ‘Lowassa Move’ has a negative impact to CCM but positive ones for Ukawa.
CCM will lose an asset with many followers which could benefit them during election, but the move would boost Chadema membership. This in turn would help the latter in the October 25 general election.
SOURCE: GUARDIAN ON SUNDAY
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