Those interviewed by ‘The Guardian’ yesterday were of the views that CCM is likely to win because it has supporters from the grassroots level while some sections of the country’s constitution favour the party in power. But others said Chadema also stands a better chance of winning because its presidential candidate enjoys mass support.
University of Dar es Salaam Senior Lecturer Dr Haji Semboja said the decision by Chama Cha Mapinduzi to leave out former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa in the presidential race has given Chadema a big advantage, which without hesitation accepted him as its presidential candidate.
Lowassa, who is supported by four opposition parties forming the Coalition of People’s Constitution (Ukawa) command a big support by majority Tanzanians, especially the youth.
Dr Semboja said in the 2010 General Election many people were registered but few of them took part in the election.The reason behind this anomaly, he said was that people’s expectations were not satisfactorily met by the government in power, thus they in turn decided to ‘vote with their feet’.
“This year’s election is different by many dimensions because many people have registered and the anxiety for them to vote is there. If the entire electoral process is conducted fairly including votes tallying, Chadema is
likely to win the presidential post,” he said.
Dr Semboja further explained that should Chadema win the presidential post, the president will be required to form cabinet by appointing ministers from the opposition parties forming the Coalition.
He however noted that it would be unconscionable for the president to pick a cabinet exclusively from the coalition without collaborating other parties.
According to Dr Semboja since the Parliament is likely to have many lawmakers from CCM there is no way the government of the day can avoid collaborating with them.
Dr Semboja however observed that there is point for people to argue much because the likelihood for CCM to maintain a lead in the number of MPs is big compared to the rest of the parties.
Commenting on the performance of CCM presidential candidate Dr John Magufuli, he said, the former works minister looks very strong although he appears to know little about his party.
St Augustine University lecturer Mlagiri Kopoka was equivocal. First he was the views that CCM is likely to win the General Election because some sections of the country’s Constitution which favour the ruling party have not been amended.
He said the Constitution allows the President to remain in power until the elected president is sworn-in, adding that this is an advantage for the party in power because the outgoing President and his cabinet ministers can use the government resources including funds to “win the election.”
Dr Kopoka said under such circumstances it may difficult to defeat the party in power.
Conversly, Dr Kopoka said Chadema is also likely to win the election because it enjoys mass support especially from youth.
He said currently many people especially youth need change and they are tired of the ruling party because they see that it has not addressed the major problems facing the society including unemployment.
He said there are many university graduates who are not employed and they believe that by electing an opposition party their problem may be addressed.
Dr Kopoka said that based on these factors and taking into account that youths form a big chunk in the country’s population it is likely that they would give victory to Chadema.
A lecturer at the Institute of Development Studies, University of Dar es Salaam, Dr Magdalena Ngaiza said if CCM would allow an internal revolution within the party that could put it in a better position in this year’s General Election.
She said the party regarded internal revolution within itself as negative criticism. It thus suppressed its advocates instead of finding solutions by collaborating with those who are for it.
Dr Ngaiza however said that despite the shortfalls, CCM is likely to win the election because it still has supporters from the grassroots.
She also said that the pre-campaign visits by CCM Secretary General Abdulrahman Kinana across the country in which he talked to people at the grassroots has also helped a lot in promoting the party’s ethos.
Dr Ngaiza added that the CCM presidential candidate has real supporters who are critical and analytical unlike Chadema which only has emotional supporters.
She said the population which demands for change is desperate, adding that if they are many they can also win the election.
Stella Maris Mtwara University College lecturer Rev Dr Aidan Msafiri said that based on anthropological factors Tanzanians are looking to be tired of the ruling CCM, having been in power for many years and they are now in need of change. He said this could be an advantage to Chadema.
He said that CCM is aware of that and that is why all the placards for its presidential candidate are written ‘Vote for Magufuli and not ‘Vote CCM’.
He said that Magufuli may appear to be powerful candidate, but the demerit would be that he is not in the right political party.
Rev Msafiri said that despite the accusations on corruption facing Chadema presidential candidate still he is highly supported because the people under him look smatter than those under Magufuli.
SOURCE: THE GUARDIAN
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