Zanzibar politics: Setting the stage ahead of elections year

By Ally Saleh The Citizen Correspondent

This scenario makes it very unlikely that President Kikwete would want to appease his right wing members who favour immediate referendum to surf with the tide which predicts CCM will score best as against a referendum after the General Election.

Zanzibar. The stage has now been set for the 2015 political battle in the spice islands of Zanzibar where residents here eat and breathe politics and they will usually thrive with this prospect around the corner. They can hardly wait.

Proverbial swords and knives are being drawn for use against political foes and almost one year before the General Election it already smells competition and rivalry as political camps are being revived. The party mood for political campaigns and rallies is impregnating the air.

And the main camps in the Zanzibar political arena are the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) and the main opposition party Civic United Front (CUF) which have met four times sweating blood and blow by blow since multi-party politics were ushered in-in 1992. But Zanzibaris are no strangers to political rivalry and violence because they have voted eight times since 1959.

The curtain has been unveiled with the completion of the Proposed Constitution that has been in the making for the last three years.
The action of signalling its conclusion when it was handed over to Tanzania President Jakaya Kikwete and if it has been decided that there will be no referendum to validate it right away, then the General Election is the next big thing coming.

If the government decides to the contrary to hold the referendum then there will be the need for Zanzibar to go into amending its constitution as consequence of the changes in the Union Constitution something that will call for referendum to approve changes in the Zanzibar 1984 Constitution.

This scenario makes it very unlikely that President Kikwete would want to appease his right wing members who favour immediate referendum to surf with the tide which predicts CCM will score best as against a referendum after the General Election.

However, to Zanzibar even the referendum to validate the Union Constitution, if so decided, will be like the General Election. The mood is already set and it appears that parties will contest this as fiercely as they would in the elections because that will be agenda number one for all political parties.

The main opposition party CUF which boycotted the constitutional making process in Dodoma will go all out to prove to the public that the proposed constitution is nothing but a ploy to suppress Zanzibar and will have no implication on the long crying of more autonomy to Zanzibar and has not solved the Union problems as regards to rights and status of Zanzibar.

The ruling CCM will want to interest the voters that it has cut the best deal for them. They will want to tell the people of Zanzibar that Zanzibar stands to gain more under the proposed constitution as now they will be able to enjoy powers never accorded to them by either the 1977 Constitution or the interim arrangement which lasted from 1964 to 1977.

And so from this week when both major political parties go out in full force to oppose or support the proposed constitution the election campaign will gain its unofficial opening. Parties will never look back and members will take it as the race having started.

Apart from the constitutional question which necessarily includes the Union, the other major electoral issue will be the Government of National Unity (GNU) which has been installed since 2010 following protracted political violence since multi-party politics were introduced. Three out of four elections held between 1995 and 2005 were bloody and violent with results strongly disputed.

Twice the opposition boycotted the House of Representatives in protest of results but the 2000 results were violently challenged when CUF staged demonstration on January 26-27 whereby Police are alleged to have killed 31 people and for the first time 4,000 Zanzibaris became refugees in Mombasa, Kenya.

It was when President Amani Karume and his major political foe opposition leader Seif Shariff Hamad decided enough was enough and when they shook hands on that day of 5th November, 2009 things changed for good in Zanzibar. The action quickly translated into genuine call to end years of political violence and winner takes all in political spoils after General Election.

On July 31, 2010 Zanzibaris voted by 66 per cent in a referendum to approve several constitutional amendments but key among them was the initiation of GNU which was aimed to bring a government formation that would be the source of peace and stability in Zanzibar. But four years down the line, the GNU is being questioned and several CCM leaders have publicly questioned its existence.

GNU has been so vital to CUF mainly because it has seen its members who have suffered the brunt of political violence with the Police and other state apparatus always targeting them and its initiation has provided them with relative peace but also has allowed CUF to do politics and they believe they have gained a lot of ground which would have been otherwise not possible.

The next one year will be interesting time as it is likely to be the last opportunity for the opposition leader Seif Shariff Hamad who is challenged by age and he and his party would like to think their lucky time is now. Hamad has vied against Dr Salmin Amour, Amani Karume twice and Dr Ali Muhammed Shein.

He has always cried wolf and his members believe he has had his victory stolen. In a country where election are won and lost by a whisker, and political scenario is one that voting is attached to ones’ past, Hamad and his party can no longer claim to be always losing because CCM is cheating on the results.

On the other side Dr Shein has all reasons to stay on to continue with several reforms he has initiated and to cement the GNU to distance himself from right wing elements within his party, has yet to announce his candidature. I have information he is preparing to do so.

However, there is no likelyhood Hamad would be challenged from within but information circulating indicates Second Vice President Seif Ali Idd is likely to challenge Dr Shein. There are many indications to suggest his growing interests and it will interesting time to watch this scenario.

Hamad Rashid Muhammed, the controversial but charismatic politician, who until now is said to be still CUF member has just announced that he is also going to contest for Zanzibar presidency probably through another political party. No one in Zanzibar will take his candidature seriously, and analysts look at his coming only as a ploy to dent CUF chances in elections.

Aside from the presidency, fierce competition will be in House elections. There are 50 constituencies up for grabs divided into 32 for Unguja and 18 in Pemba. So far CUF has been winning all available in Pemba and in the last elections even won four in Unguja something that sent shock waves in the CCM spine. The Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) has announced plans to remap the electoral constituencies with the likelihood of reducing constituencies in Pemba so as to add more in Unguja and play with the limits of the law allowing ZEC have between 45 and 55. If ZEC decides to implement the hatched plan it is very apparent that it would be the main source of friction and grinding in the next elections.

Another interesting item to watch will be how the two parties in the GNU will come out to the public to explain their roles in the already five year marriage, but at the same time each wanting to impress the public what it has done in the furtherance of their roles. It could be time also for the people to see the GNU dirty linen being washed in public.

To CCM it, who claim that its election manifesto is the one implemented in running the GNU, it would be at pains to explain that it has successfully done so. It would claim all the successes chalked down and would be saying it has the right to be re-elected.

On the other side, CUF would want to hold that it has been the key to GNU in running the government. It would go to the public to say that in fact Dr Shein was running a joint programme having taken many aspects from CUF 2010 election manifesto, and they would go on enumerating them.CUF would further claim, where it would suit them, that it did not have a free hand in running the government, and had they had this free hand things would have been a lot better. In that extension they would ask the voting public to trust them with the next government to see the full throttle of what they could deliver.

Many would hope that the state apparatus would be fair like they did in the 2010 elections when a single interference was not recorded. Also that the state broadcasting would be as fair as humanly possible allowing all major players to enjoy the air time accessibility equitably if not equally so that each side will be voted from what it would sell and convince the public. In short it will be the expectations of all that the political ground will be very much level.