BY DICKSON NG`HILY
4th November 2013
A study conducted between September and October, this year, has revealed that daladala owners lose around 265bn/- in income and 25.55bn/- in fuel costs yearly, while employers lose 120.4bn/- in the same period, being wages paid to workers who are not working because they are trapped in traffic jams.
The loss is more than three times (3.09) the 133bn/- that was misappropriated from the External Payment Arrears (EPA) account operated by Bank of Tanzania (BOT), known as ‘EPA Scandal’ which analysts said could have constructed at least 24,000 classrooms or 19,000 houses for teachers in the country.
And if there is no change in the inflation rates for the coming five years, the Dar economy will lose at least 2.06trn/- which could be used to run the Works ministry for a year. The budget for the ministry in 2012/2013 fiscal year is 1.23trn/-
The study which was carried out by statisticians Edward Ntwale and Elias Samweli both working with The Guardian Limited, sought to show the effects of traffic congestion on the economy as a wake-up call to stakeholders to stop the huge economic losses.
Speaking exclusively to this paper over the weekend, Ntwale said: “…when it comes to transport and transportation in Dar es Salaam, traffic jams have been considered as problem No: 1 to workers. Everyday work-hours are unnecessarily wasted due to jams. They have a great economic impact on production and thus on our economy.”
He added: “In fact, the congestion causes untold suffering to people going to offices as well as those heading to various destinations. In Dar es Salaam, the situation is more alarming mainly due to vehicular movement. Vehicles daily are faulty and emit black smoke in excess of the prescribed limit.”
The study has revealed that the average number of trips per commuter bus without traffic is 14.84 per day, whereas the average number of trips with jams is 10.25. On the other hand, the average income is 19,762/50 per normal trip while the income with traffic jams is just 19,569/- per trip.
Ntwale clarifies: “This means that on a free flow trip one daladala collects an average of (14.84 x 19,762.50) = 293,276/- per day and (10.25 x 19,569) = 200,582/- per day on trips that encounter congestion and this excludes cost of fuel. This means that one Daladala loses a total of 103,676/= daily due to traffic jams.”
According to data obtained from The Surface and Marine Transport Regulatory Authority (Sumatra), currently there are at least 7000 registered Daladala in the city; this brings to approximately 726m/- (103,676 x 7000) the income wasted by traffic jams on a daily basis.
“If we calculate for 365 days, the income lost annually by daladala owners alone is 265bn/- (726m x 365).
For his part, Samweli said when it comes to fuel consumption, the findings show that in a free flow a single daladala uses 2.64litres of fuel per trip while this increases to 4.31litres on traffic jams trips.
Samweli said: “We have discovered that a single daladala consumes (14.84 x 2.64) = 39.18litres on a free flow and (10.25 x 4.31) = 44.18litres on traffic jams per day; this makes an extra of (44.18 – 39.18) = 5.0litres of fuel per trip per day.”
He added: “If a single daladala uses an extra 5.0litres of fuel per day, the same will use 1,825litres of fuel in 365 days. The average price of fuel in the city is 2000/- per litre. A single daladala will incur an extra cost of 3.6m/-, with the 7,000 registered Daladalas in the city, having to pay additional 25.55bn/- in fuel costs.”
Samweli told this reporter that when it comes to the cost of time wasted due to congestion; a passenger spends almost three times longer on the road compared to a free flow trip. On a free flow trip a daladala takes only 58 minutes, while the same spends 151minutes for a trip on congested roads.
According to Employment and Earnings Survey (EES) Analytical Report of 2012 conducted by National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Dar es Salaam region has approximately 500,000 persons working in public and private sectors and most of them in or around the city. The EES indicates that about 80 percent out of the 500,000, equivalent to 400,000 workers depend on public transport.
Assuming half of 400,000 workers who depend on daladalas get late to work due to traffic jams, and if the normal working hours are from 8:00am to 4:00pm (8hours), and work for 160 hours a month yet according to the EES most Tanzanians receive monthly wage of between 65,000/- and 500,000/=-with an average of 282,500/- per month.
Therefore, said he: “…a passenger (worker) wastes (151 – 58) = 93min or 1.55 hours due to traffic jams. This indicates that a worker will work for fewer hours which are (8 – 1.55) = 6.45hrs. If we consider 5 working days for 11 months a year, a single worker will waste a total of 341 hours per year due to traffic jams.”
For that reason, based on the assumptions that a worker is being paid (282,500 /160) = 1,765/- per hour, (EES), this implies that the employer will waste a wage of (1.55 x 1,765) = 2,735/75 per day per worker for unproductive hours (wasted wage). This is equivalent to (341 x 1,765) = 601,865/- per year, which is the amount of wages being paid to an employee without working.
“Based on our assumptions that 200,000 workers get late to work on every working day it implies that (601,865 x 200,000) = 120.4bn/- is being wasted on wages for unproductive hours. We can therefore, conclude that the findings have shown the grand total loss incurred due to traffic jams considering the three areas is an estimated 411bn/- per year,” he said.
“Bus owners lose 265.6bn/- in income, 25.55bn/- in extra fuel costs while employers lose 120.4bn/- in the time wasted by workers due to traffic jams,” he added.
SOURCE: THE GUARDIAN
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