Charles Makongoro Nyerere
IN SUMMARYThe once-disgraced prime minister, who resigned in February 2008, has politically rejuvenated at a pace that no serious political analyst can map out. His supporters see him as a victim of politics of betrayal—and they believe he was duped by the very same man he backed for decades to be the president of Tanzania.
So far, Mr Lowassa appears to be the most powerful politician within the ruling party. He enjoys strong support within CCM’s National Executive Committee (NEC) and the General Congress—the two crucial organs that elect the ruling party’s presidential candidate. Mr Lowassa was written off politically after he resigned seven years ago but has bounced back dramatically in the past three years—and he has set his sights on the top job.
According to our sources, a plan was mooted within the party in 2014 to neutralise Mr Lowassa—who was getting more powerful by the day. Power mongers and people in the establishment reportedly argued that Mr Nyerere would be best placed to counter Mr Lowassa’s power and also give the ruling party an edge.
Although The Citizen on Sunday could not independently verify whether Mr Nyerere will indeed vie for the top job—thus joining the elite league of Uhuru Kenyatta, Amani Abeid Karume, Joseph Kabila and George W Bush in succeeding their fathers—his close allies are cautiously confident that he will be the next president of Tanzania.
Mr Nyerere, an orator with the ability to master the political podium in both English and Kiswahili, was a thorn in the flesh for Mr Lowassa, Mr Rostam Aziz and Mr Andrew John Chenge in the course of a plan to oust the trio from the ruling party, due to corruption allegations. He spoke long and loud against the three leaders and other CCM members who were accused of tainting the image of the party, asking them to quit. It was a move that earned him many political enemies.
The Mara defeat
He was then the CCM’s Regional Chairman for Mara—a position he lost in an election that some analysts saw as payback for Mr Nyerere’s staunch support for the ousting of Mr Lowassa, Mr Chenge and Mr Aziz. Mr Nyerere lost the CCM election in the region to a virtually unknown candidate and his allies still hold that his political stand was to blame for the embarrassing defeat. The Citizen on Sunday has not independently verified this claim.
Mr Nyerere was the first member of Mwalimu’s family to join the opposition in 1995 and went on to win the parliamentary seat in Arusha constituency in the first multiparty general election. He is now a Member of East African Legislative Assembly (Eala).
Those in favour of Mr Nyerere bank their hopes on the political brand and the towering image of the founding father of Tanzania. A staunch Nyerere supporter told The Citizen on Sunday: “Marketing Mr Nyerere is every easy because of the enduring legacy his father left behind to ordinary Tanzanians as well as the elite, many would empathise with him during the election.”
The supporter, who has also backed Mr Nyerere financially, added: “It’s time to take power back where it belongs so we can start afresh. CCM is wounded because of politics of betrayal authored by the current regime. He is clean, neutral and a leader with support beyond our borders.”
Early this week, Mr Nyerere told our sister paper, Mwananchi, that he would decide “when the time to collect the nomination forms within the ruling party comes”.
Mr Nyerere did not categorically deny that he was planning to vie for the country’s top job within the ruling party. The Citizen on Sunday has established that there were three secret meetings in Dar es Salaam and outside the city last year at which power brokers within and without the establishment set out to prime the younger Nyerere to join the presidential race.
Mr Nyerere, who also enjoys warm support from other East African leaders like Uhuru Kenyatta, Yoweri Museveni and Paul Kagame because of the role the late Mwalimu played in post-independence Africa, is said to have been initially reluctant. He reportedly demanded to be told the details of the grand plan to get him to vie for the presidency before making any move.
The Citizen on Sunday has spoken to more than five different sources and they confirm a “serious push” to ensure Mr Nyerere becomes Tanzania’s next President.
What is likely to happen?
There is no doubt that Mr Nyerere’s entry in the presidential race would have an impact beyond the Lowassa factor. As the son of the first president and a devout Catholic, Mr Nyerere would have a negative impact on the career of Mr Bernard Membe, the current Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation minister.
Mr Membe, a close ally of President Kikwete—perhaps among the few who are still surviving politically within the current regime—is viewed by some within and outside the ruling party as the choice of the First Family. Mr Membe boasts of being clean and a true patriotic who puts his country first and has been one of Mr Lowassa’s main challengers.
He is also a devout Catholic and played a crucial role in bringing down one Mr Mkapa’s allies, Dr Hassy Kitine, who resigned as the minister for Health in the 1990s for misuse of public funds.
In Mr Mkapa’s inner circle, Dr Kitine—a spymaster in the Nyerere era—was viewed as a possible Mkapa successor in 2005. This posed a serious threat to the Kikwete camp, which had been waiting for a chance after its defeat in 1995.
To eliminate him from the race, he was handled by Mr Membe, who gathered toxic details on the medical records of Mr Kitine’s wife in Canada, which were then leaked to the local media. The former spymaster resigned.
In the past decade of serving within the Kikwete regime, Mr Membe has played his political cards carefully, trying not to tarnish his image ahead of the presidential race within the ruling party. His main stumbling block has been Mr Lowassa.
It is widely alleged that Mr Membe enjoys the strong support of the First Family, though President Kikwete has never publicly named his preferred successor.
Traditionally, no sitting President has managed to impose a candidate of his choice. Previous presidents have either worked behind the scenes or just allowed democracy to prevail within their parties.
It is not clear which path the current President will take, having successfully managed to make Dr Ali Mohammed Shein the President of Zanzibar in a dramatic election in which many gave highest chance to Dr Mohammed Gharib Bilal—the current Union Vice President.
But, with the coming of Mr Nyerere (should it really happen), there is no doubt that Mr Membe’s camp would also be highly affected.
So far, two key aspirants—Premier Mizengo Pinda and Works minister John Magufuli—have declared their intention to succeed President Kikwete. With the entry of Mr Nyerere, though, the political battle is set to intensify beyond CCM. There are no written rules on the next president but, as far as CCM is concerned, he or she should be a Christian from the Mainland or the Isles. But anything can happen.
Top contenders in CCM
Should Mr Nyerere join the race, there will be five serious aspirants, including Mr Lowassa, Mr Magufuli, Mr Membe and Mr Pinda. There are other presidential aspirants who have also declared their intentions—Mr January Makamba, President Kikwete’s former speech writer and deputy minister for Science, Technology and Communications, Mr Lazaro Nyalandu, the minister for Tourism and Natural Resources, Mr Stephen Wassira, the minister for Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperatives and Dr Nasser Kigwangala, the Nzega lagislator.
CCM’s Central Committee is required to thoroughly vet and finally recommend five top candidates, who will then compete fiercely within the National Executive Committee (NEC) to get to three posts.
These top three are then voted for by the party’s General Congress and the winner is declared the presidential candidate.
According to tradition, the ruling party’s presidential candidate is expected to be elected by May.
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