Results to be released soon
As presidential campaigns continue, with contenders hosting huge turnouts in public rallies, a clear picture about who is likely to win the race may emerge in the next 12 days.
Twaweza and IPSOS-Synovate research institutions are expected to release the results of opinion polls they have conducted on the forthcoming general elections.
The release of the poll results are likely to give the public a hint about the leading presidential candidates follows Tanzania Communication Regulatory Authority’s (TCRA) regulation which bars pollsters from releasing the results within 30 days to an election date.
However, when the Guardian on Sunday contacted TCRA for official clarification on the law that bars research institutions from releasing poll results within the stated duration, the authorities demanded a questionnaire to contemplate on the issue.
The polls assess public sentiments on the contending parties’ candidates and determine the trend in voting given the situation at present, thus setting a forecast for the election results.
Therefore, a well conducted pre-election opinion polls will be expected to provide a general picture of the election outcomes.
Twaweza researchers told this paper that they had already done the polling and were currently collecting and analysing the data to be released before the TCRA deadline.
“We are in the final stage of compiling the data and we expect to release the results of the poll within two weeks” said Risha Chande, a Twaweza senior communication manager this week.
IPSOS-Synovate, on the other hand told this paper that they would release the results of their poll within the next few days, but fell short of specifying the date.
Their country manager, Charles Makau said they had already conducted the opinion polls and they were on the final stage.
While the two institutions expect to release their polls any time soon, Research and Education for Democracy in Tanzania (REDET) declared that they would not be conducting polls this year because they lacked financial resources.
REDET associate chairman Dr Benson Banna said they could not afford an exercise that would require a minimum of Sh60m to interview about 1,500 respondents.
“We would very much like to conduct the polls given the ongoing hot contest,” he said, adding they would do the job were there an institution that volunteered sponsorship.
In 2010 REDET conducted opinion polls that gave a forecast of victory to CCM candidate, Jakaya Kikwete. The poll had given Kikwete 71.2 per cent of the votes if the presidential election was held on the day of the poll.
Despite his then growing popularity Dr Willibrod Slaa of Chadema, would have garnered only 12.3 percent with Prof. Ibrahim Lipumba of the Civic United Front securing only 10.1 per cent of the votes.
Opinion poll results notwithstanding, the only results which carry the day are those which the National Electoral Commission (NEC) announces after an election.
So, NEC will have the last word after this year’s hotly contested election has been held on October 25 and announces the results, hopefully three days later.
General elections this year will be the country’s fifth since the installation of multiparty politics in 1992. Voters will elect the president, members of parliament and councillors.
Last September, Twaweza conducted the opinion poll which gave the advantage of 13 per cent to the Former Prime Minister and Monduli Member of Parliament (MP) Edward Lowassa, then a member for the ruling party.
The current Prime Minister and Mpanda MP Mizengo Pinda had 12 per cent, Wilbrod Slaa of Chadema scored 11 per cent, with a quarter of CCM supporters which is 24 per cent of all the members saying they would vote for anyone chosen by their party.
In another poll conducted by the local research institution Samunge Social Sciences Research Centre (SSSCR) also gave the lead to the former Monduli MP, then a CCM member with 37 per cent lead over his rivals.
His closest rival who was expected to run on Chadema ticket Dr Slaa came second with 11.7 per cent support.
John Magufuli, the Minister for Works, came second with 7.6 per cent, followed by Foreign Minister Bernard Membe at 7 per cent, January Makamba at 4.8 per cent and the current Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda at 2.4 per cent.
Election campaigns kicked off on August 22 and scheduled to end on October 24.
SOURCE: GUARDIAN ON SUNDAY
Results to be released soonTwaweza and IPSOS-Synovate research institutions are expected to release the results of opinion polls they have conducted on the forthcoming general elections.
The release of the poll results are likely to give the public a hint about the leading presidential candidates follows Tanzania Communication Regulatory Authority’s (TCRA) regulation which bars pollsters from releasing the results within 30 days to an election date.
However, when the Guardian on Sunday contacted TCRA for official clarification on the law that bars research institutions from releasing poll results within the stated duration, the authorities demanded a questionnaire to contemplate on the issue.
The polls assess public sentiments on the contending parties’ candidates and determine the trend in voting given the situation at present, thus setting a forecast for the election results.
Therefore, a well conducted pre-election opinion polls will be expected to provide a general picture of the election outcomes.
Twaweza researchers told this paper that they had already done the polling and were currently collecting and analysing the data to be released before the TCRA deadline.
“We are in the final stage of compiling the data and we expect to release the results of the poll within two weeks” said Risha Chande, a Twaweza senior communication manager this week.
IPSOS-Synovate, on the other hand told this paper that they would release the results of their poll within the next few days, but fell short of specifying the date.
Their country manager, Charles Makau said they had already conducted the opinion polls and they were on the final stage.
While the two institutions expect to release their polls any time soon, Research and Education for Democracy in Tanzania (REDET) declared that they would not be conducting polls this year because they lacked financial resources.
REDET associate chairman Dr Benson Banna said they could not afford an exercise that would require a minimum of Sh60m to interview about 1,500 respondents.
“We would very much like to conduct the polls given the ongoing hot contest,” he said, adding they would do the job were there an institution that volunteered sponsorship.
In 2010 REDET conducted opinion polls that gave a forecast of victory to CCM candidate, Jakaya Kikwete. The poll had given Kikwete 71.2 per cent of the votes if the presidential election was held on the day of the poll.
Despite his then growing popularity Dr Willibrod Slaa of Chadema, would have garnered only 12.3 percent with Prof. Ibrahim Lipumba of the Civic United Front securing only 10.1 per cent of the votes.
Opinion poll results notwithstanding, the only results which carry the day are those which the National Electoral Commission (NEC) announces after an election.
So, NEC will have the last word after this year’s hotly contested election has been held on October 25 and announces the results, hopefully three days later.
General elections this year will be the country’s fifth since the installation of multiparty politics in 1992. Voters will elect the president, members of parliament and councillors.
Last September, Twaweza conducted the opinion poll which gave the advantage of 13 per cent to the Former Prime Minister and Monduli Member of Parliament (MP) Edward Lowassa, then a member for the ruling party.
The current Prime Minister and Mpanda MP Mizengo Pinda had 12 per cent, Wilbrod Slaa of Chadema scored 11 per cent, with a quarter of CCM supporters which is 24 per cent of all the members saying they would vote for anyone chosen by their party.
In another poll conducted by the local research institution Samunge Social Sciences Research Centre (SSSCR) also gave the lead to the former Monduli MP, then a CCM member with 37 per cent lead over his rivals.
His closest rival who was expected to run on Chadema ticket Dr Slaa came second with 11.7 per cent support.
John Magufuli, the Minister for Works, came second with 7.6 per cent, followed by Foreign Minister Bernard Membe at 7 per cent, January Makamba at 4.8 per cent and the current Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda at 2.4 per cent.
Election campaigns kicked off on August 22 and scheduled to end on October 24.
SOURCE: GUARDIAN ON SUNDAY
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